The cost of policy uncertainty on investment
Economic policy uncertainty has a measurable negative impact on business investment. In 2025, policy uncertainty reached unprecedented levels, surpassing the peaks seen during both the global financial crisis (2008-2009) and the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020). This Oxford Economics report, commissioned by ICC, examines how economic policy uncertainty affected business investment across ten major economies – and what is at stake for 2026. Economic policy uncertainty erased the equivalent to US$202 billion in global business investment in 2025 and could double the losses in 2026 if volatility intensifies. No economy is fully insulated, underscoring the importance of predictable policy signals for investment decisions.
