Country and regional analyses underscore urgency of WTO reform

Building on the 2024 regional study, a new 2025 follow-up report commissioned by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) and conducted by Oxford Economics provides a country-level look at the consequences of WTO dissolution for ten developing economies: Brazil, Cameroon, China, Egypt, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Türkiye and Vietnam.

The 2024 regional study (available in English and Spanish) showed that WTO dissolution would have devastating consequences for developing economies across the world, including:

• A 33% drop in developing countries’ non-fuel goods trade relative to a baseline scenario with the multilateral system still in place;
• A permanent GDP loss to developing countries of over 5% – driven in part by a 5% decline in foreign direct investment flows;
• Acute export losses of 43% in low-income economies and 32% in middle-income countries;
• At a regional level, trade flows in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are most affected, reflective of the large number of LDCs within these groupings. 

This new country-level analysis confirms those findings and shows the impact on ten examined developing economies:

• Non-fuel goods exports would fall by up to 45%, with Brazil, India and China among the hardest hit. Even the least affected countries in the sample — Egypt and Guatemala — would face declines of around 20%;
• Foreign direct investment is projected to fall between 3–6% in the ten countries studied, as rising uncertainty and trade costs undermine investor confidence;
• Long-run GDP losses are estimated to range from 3% to 6%, with the sharpest contractions in economies highly dependent on export-led growth, such as Vietnam, China and India.

These figures underscore what is at stake. For developing countries, the breakdown of the multilateral trading system would not just slow progress, it could reverse hard-won development gains.

The message is clear: the multilateral trading system remains an essential foundation not only for economic growth and poverty reduction, but to also safeguard wider global interests, including supply chain resilience. Preserving and strengthening the WTO is not a theoretical exercise — it is an urgent priority for sustainable development and shared prosperity.

Why are some countries more exposed than others?

The research shows that countries with shallow integration into global value chains and limited trade agreements —such as Brazil and India — would face the sharpest export declines. Others, like China and Vietnam, are more integrated into global markets but remain highly dependent on a predictable, rules-based system. In all cases, a WTO dissolution would have far-reaching consequences for growth and development.

Can FTAs replace the WTO’s rule-based system?

While regional and bilateral trade agreements offer some protection, they do not offer the global legal certainty and broad-based commitments provided by WTO rules. Even with countries with more extensive FTA networks, such as Guatemala and Egypt, would still face major disruptions. In addition, many FTAs are built on WTO rules. If the global trading system broke down, parts of those agreements could stop working properly, and some deals might need to be rewritten.

What needs to happen now?

The findings reinforce the urgency of revitalising and strengthening the multilateral trading system. ICC urges governments to work together to ensure the multilateral trading system is modernised and made fit-for-purpose to meet the demands of today’s global economy.

Without action, the cost of the erosion of the WTO will fall heaviest on those with the least ability to absorb it and the greatest need for a stable, rules-based global economy. The alternative, as this paper shows, is not just economic disruption for developing countries, but a devastating setback for global development and, ultimately, for the lives and livelihoods of billions.