The implications of a democracies-only trade pact
- Select
- English
Trade
New ICC analysis examines the economic implications of proposals to establish a trade system limited to democratic nations, finding such plans would trigger a tariff shock three times larger than the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 that significantly impacted global trade by raising US import duties on a wide range of goods.
Go directly to:
Recent proposals call for democratic nations to form an exclusive trading bloc. Our analysis, which assumes 25% tariffs on all non-qualifying countries, examines the scope and scale of this change.
In a series of high-profile interviews with major media outlets, ICC Secretary General John W. H. Denton AO, has highlighted widespread concerns and uncertainties within the global business community as a result of threatened and imposed US tariff hikes.
Two studies commissioned by ICC and conducted by Oxford Economics highlight the devastating effects of a collapse of the WTO system. The 2024 report shows the severe impact on developing economies across regions. The 2025 follow-up report provides a detailed, country-level analysis across ten developing economies — Brazil, Cameroon, China, Egypt, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Türkiye, and Vietnam — confirming how a breakdown of the WTO would have damaging country-level consequences.
ICC has proposed a framework that sets out a holistic vision for reform of the World Trade Organization (WTO) from the perspective of the global business community. Such a framework is necessary to ensure a comprehensive approach to reform across the three vital functions of the organisation.
Business leaders worldwide have shared crucial insights with ICC on key trade policy challenges, highlighting the need for predictability in global markets.