Global trade hits US$35 trillion despite disruption and uncertainty, ICC report finds

Global trade in goods and services reached approximately US$35 trillion in 2025, demonstrating continued resilience despite geopolitical tensions, tariff changes and disruption to major trade routes according to the 2026 ICC Global Trade Intelligence Report. Formerly the ICC Trade register, the report was published today by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), in collaboration with Global Credit Data (GCD) and Boston Consulting Group (BCG), marking its evolution into a broader source of data and intelligence for the global trade and trade finance industry.

Looking ahead, ICC warns that policy choices could however have a significant impact on global trade. Modelling by BCG presented in the report identifies a difference of almost US$13 trillion between the strongest and weakest scenarios for global goods trade by 2035.

At the same time, the underlying risk evidence continues to demonstrate the low-risk characteristics of trade finance.

While the full set of results across trade finance instruments is included in the report, headline results show that exposure-weighted default rates for import letters of credit increased slightly in 2025, while obligor-weighted default rates declined. Default rates for performance guarantees and supply chain finance also declined.

The report provides detailed figures for each trade finance instruments, alongside expert analysis of trends and idiosyncratic events.

Beyond trade finance risk

The new name reflects a broader ambition for the project. Alongside the report’s longstanding analysis of credit risk in trade finance, the Global Trade Intelligence Report now provides deeper insights into global trade flows, the outlook for trade finance, emerging trade corridors and major industry trends including AI, digitalisation and sustainability.

The 2026 report draws on data from 26 trade and export finance banks, covering more than 62 million transactions and over US$28 trillion in exposures, complemented by insights from more than 100 trade finance practitioners globally.

“The evolution from the ICC Trade Register to the ICC Global Trade Intelligence Report reflects our ambition to build on the industry’s leading evidence base for trade finance risk and drive wider participation as well as provide broader insights into the global trade trend and emerging risks. By bringing together robust data, market intelligence and industry expertise, we want the Global Trade Intelligence Report to become the global reference point for trade finance intelligence.”

Samuel-John Mathew, Chair of the ICC Global Trade Intelligence Report and Global Head of Documentary Trade at Standard Chartered Bank

ICC has published a 2026 Strategic Preview, providing a snapshot of the report’s key findings and including an introduction to the insights and analysis contained in the full report.

Expanding the evidence base

The next phase of the project will focus on expanding participation and broadening the evidence base, with additional banks invited to contribute data and join the initiative. Broader participation will strengthen geographic and product coverage, improve industry benchmarking and reinforce the evidence available to support ICC’s regulatory and policy advocacy.

The full ICC Global Trade Intelligence Report provides a benchmark of trade finance data and insights, bringing together 18 years of risk data, with expanded analysis of global trade and the trade finance market.

For further information on accessing the report, joining the Global Trade Intelligence Report as a member and data contributor for future editions, please contact the ICC Global Banking Commission.