This summary paper for policymakers sets out key findings and implications of the ICC commissioned study on THE ECONOMIC CASE FOR GLOBAL VACCINATION: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks
The survey highlights the major risks to the global economy inherent in an uncoordinated approach to vaccine access. Using a sophisticated model—that builds upon an earlier NBER Working Paper—to properly the assess the economic toll of a prolonged pandemic, the research shows that no economy can recover fully from the Covid-19 pandemic until vaccines are equally accessible in all countries.
In short, advanced economies that can vaccinate all of their citizens are shown to remain at risk of a sluggish recovery with a drag on GDP if infection continues to spread unabated in emerging markets and developing economies. These losses dwarf the donor finance needed to enable vaccines to be procured for everyone, everywhere—making a clear “investment case” for full capitalization of the ACT Accelerator and a coordinated global approach to distribution.
Key findings expanded on in the summary paper include:
No economy is an island.
Should countries continue to pursue an uncoordinated approach to vaccine distribution, the world risks global GDP losses in 2021 alone of as much as US$ 9.2 trillion
Even if advanced economies reach optimal vaccination levels by the second quarter of this year, they will incur up to almost half of this cost if the rollout of vaccines in developing economies continues what appears to be its current trajectory
Even in a more optimistic scenario, total global costs would only go down to US$ 4.4 trillion—53% of which would be borne by advanced economies, amounting to US$ 2.4 trillion in lost GDP.
Advanced economies have a clear economic incentive to speed the distribution of vaccines on a globally coordinated basis—minimizing the potential for supply and demand shocks in third countries to result in economic losses at home.
Funding needed to enable equitable vaccine access should be reconsidered as a major investment opportunity
The more open an advanced economy, the greater its potential economic gain from ensuring global availability of vaccines
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