How can business shape the future of multilateral cooperation?

Vrinda Tiwari: [00:00:02] Hello, my name is Vrinda Tiwari. I work in the International Energy Agency’s Asia Pacific program and was formerly an Australian diplomat based out of Timor-Leste and France. I’ll be your host for today’s episode of Trading Thoughts, where we will be exploring multilateralism in today’s fragmented and increasingly complex geopolitical and economic environment. I’m really pleased to be joined today by John Denton, the Secretary General of the International Chamber of Commerce. John [00:00:30] plays a key role in international cooperation and is someone who has genuinely shaped how business engages with the world. From advising the United Nations on major economic challenges to championing work on sustainable investment, refugee labour mobility and, of course, global trade. He is a founding member of the B20 and serves on the WTO Director General’s Business Advisory Group. John is also a former Australian diplomat, so he understands [00:01:00] how government and multilateral institutions.

John Denton: [00:01:02] Well, I think I do. Well, I used to. I mean.

Vrinda Tiwari: [00:01:05] Work from the inside. And John, I’m sure you can tell us what needs to be done to strengthen strengthen them now. Um, it’s wonderful to see you again and welcome.

John Denton: [00:01:16] No, it’s great to be with you, by the way. Um, Timor Leste, it’s actually very interesting. My my wife has just been at the Venice Biennale and she was at the Timor Leste um, Pavilion. And of course, what’s interesting to thinking about multilateralism [00:01:30] and fragmentation, I don’t know if I don’t know if you’ve seen or heard of the drama at the Biennale this year where the whole board resigned. And it’s actually it’s one of those elements where it’s increasingly hard to keep things together. And that’s something that I noticed. And that’s actually, uh, a, I suppose, a symbol and, uh, an example of what the challenges we’re seeing. It’s very hard. Even when you had the history of the Biennale to keep [00:02:00] the organization functioning effectively in 2026. So the challenges of keeping those platforms going is very, very difficult. And I think one of the interesting things about the ICC is that we’re a we’re a functioning multilateral platform. We’re in 170 countries, 70% in the Global South. And one of the interesting things about us is we actually function in 2026. When I look at some of these other platforms, which are very fragmented and and [00:02:30] you wonder why why is that? And I do think that there is a commonality of purpose that we all share across all the, the various countries, regions, interests where it’s all about how do you enable business to function in the 21st century? Because at the bottom of a functioning business community is critical to economic development, prosperity and opportunity. And actually the The general view has always [00:03:00] been. Though it’s tested now that the more business interlinkages existed, the higher the costs of actually entering into disputes or wars because you would lose some of that and probably still holds because the costs of um, of I think which are which are given away when you enter into conflict or the benefits are if you give it away when it’s entering into conflict are still there. It’s just that people are still making the equation work for themselves. [00:03:30] Though there are costs attached to that as well.

Vrinda Tiwari: [00:03:33] Well, thank you, John, I think that how’s that? I think I think that’s a really important, um, framing of the context in which we’re operating today. I mean, we’re obviously seeing, uh, more pressure, um, globally than we have from multiple different directions. So you’ve got obviously ongoing, um, conflicts that are disrupting supply chains, displacing populations. And of course, all of that is not taking [00:04:00] into account the tragic human cost that comes with them. On the other side, you’ve got unilateral trade measures and tariff actions. You’ve got price volatility, energy shortages. And I think that you have really painted or started to paint a picture of the role that business has to play in that context. So I’m really pleased to hear that. It’s a it’s a very hopeful and optimistic role and a genuine belief that [00:04:30] business can actually that business can actually help to solve some real world tangible problems.

John Denton: [00:04:37] Yeah. I mean, to be pathetic. My third name is hopes. It’s John Wallace. Hope Denton.

Vrinda Tiwari: [00:04:43] So I didn’t know that.

John Denton: [00:04:45] Yeah. Well, there you go. This is a revelatory podcast.

Vrinda Tiwari: [00:04:49] Wasn’t in your biography.

John Denton: [00:04:50] But also think that, um, anyone who wants to be successful in business needs to actually be optimistic anyway. I mean, who wants to call someone up to [00:05:00] do business and have at the other end of the call, a really depressed doer character. Generally, you’ve got to have a bit of optimism and hope that things will function well and that the deal will be done and the contract will work well and all that sort of stuff. So a level of optimism is there. But if you think about it, the kind of big global crises or challenges we confront, um, how can they be solved without business? How can you solve? I mean, if you, if you’re serious about action on the energy transformation, governments can’t do it alone. They’re going to need businesses. [00:05:30] If you’re serious about delivering on even global projects were commenced with the Sustainable Development Goals. You can’t deliver that without business. I mean, the tranches of finance required are beyond the purse of governments. It actually requires access to private finance. And I know actually, I just know this. I was just in the UN, um, working on Thursday and Friday on a particular issue. But one of the conversations I was having was when, for example, the SDGs were [00:06:00] first founded and when people started getting getting interested in finance for development, the general view was that politically, the focus had to be on forcing governments to pay. And if businesses were involved, it would take the political pressure off governments and therefore it would be a bad outcome. Um, okay, so you win the politics, but you lost the war by actually not creating incentives to enable business to be fully engaged with some of these global projects, which require [00:06:30] and will deliver such huge outcomes for citizens and populations.

John Denton: [00:06:34] You’ve actually delayed the whole process. And now, of course, the realization is that you’ve got to have the private sector involved. But the incentives aren’t set up to enable the private sector to deploy the funding or, or the methodologies are not there to actually enable that risk management to be to be deployed as well. So it’s actually, um, it’s, I think it’s more true than ever, but it’s interesting that the politics actually got in the [00:07:00] way, I think, of delivering the better outcomes, which would have been involving the private sector up front. And I think one of the challenges now looking forward on things like multilateralism, you know, we are said we’re a functioning multilateral platform. If you want to have a functioning multilateral platform that involves the kind of existing institutions like the United Nations and others, then you’ve got to find space to ensure that the private sector is not an observer, but actually is an active participant. And to be honest with you, part [00:07:30] of my strategy for the ICC has to ensure is to ensure that the ICC can play that role because we’re a for purpose, not for profit independent. Think about our spread 170 countries, 70% global South. So therefore inclusive we can occupy the space which is required for the private sector to have that voice. There’s no other entity that can do it. But helping the framers of the institutions [00:08:00] understand that it’s possible to do that, and it’s in their interest to do that. There’s still a few, few battles ahead, but that’s what I’ve been doing. And I think increasingly we’re playing that role.

Vrinda Tiwari: [00:08:11] Can I ask John, maybe just to, to grill you on that a little bit further, what types of mechanisms are you thinking of or are you talking about when you say that you need to have a more systematic way to have the private sector at the table in.

John Denton: [00:08:26] Well, I’ll give you a give you a good example. I mean, I’ll be talking later on [00:08:30] this afternoon on multilateralism in the trading environment, the WTO now the end user of the WTO’s deliberations is actually the business community. If you think about it and you think about the principles for development of good policy, that you actually involve stakeholders in the development of good policy. I’d have to be clear with you, the WTO does not involve the business community in development of the frameworks that are necessary for good [00:09:00] policy that enabled the business. In fact, it actively rejects the engagement of the private sector as a participant. It’s happy for the private sector as an observer, but it doesn’t want it as participant. In fact, at the most recent MC 14, where, look, you know, it’s pretty important. Mc sorry, this is for listeners. The Ministerial Council meeting number 14, which sets the direction and reaches the agreements necessary to move forward. Nothing was fully agreed. That [00:09:30] was one of the problems, except for a couple of agreements to actually launch negotiations outside the WTO, though anchored in the WTO. And one of my arguments was, if you’re serious in about revitalizing that institution, you need to find a way to bring the private sector in as a as a participant, not as an observer who you consult with from time to time. But the member states are still struggling to find that it’s useful.

John Denton: [00:09:56] Um, that being said, I mean, we have other examples where it works. Oh, [00:10:00] sorry. I should be very clear. The director general understands the importance of engaging with the private sector, which is why she was so open to the idea of establishing a business advisory group. And the purpose of that is not to, um, uh, take over the WTO. It’s to ensure that the priorities are clear. We clarify what priorities need to be focused on in order to enable the private sector to ensure that we have appropriate mechanisms and frameworks in place to make trading across borders much easier. Which is why, by the way, we set up [00:10:30] the B20. The idea of the B20, when you think about the G20, its whole purpose was to ensure economic growth. If you go back and look at its base, the base elements of it, how can you determine economic growth without involvement of the private sector? So the the B20 is actually there to ensure that the priorities of the private sector are actually understood and taken direct to the leaders. And that actually helps. It certainly helps in APEC, where I was part of the process of bringing the business community in there, which is the [00:11:00] business advisory group, which meets with the leaders directly without without officials, and is actually able to articulate clearly the priorities that are necessary and not by accident, that APEC remains one of the fastest growing economic groupings in the world, because it does actually, it’s serious about economic growth and serious about engagement with the private sector.

John Denton: [00:11:20] But at the UN, which is a harder institution, because the DNA of the UN is really not aligned to engagement with the private sector. It sees the [00:11:30] pursuit of profit as an evil rather than a positive, though, as I said, that that thinking is shifting quite significantly because it now realises that to deliver on some of these big projects, like the SDGs, it should have had the private sector involved from the get go. It’s harder to actually create the mechanisms. And even when the SG wants that, um, it’s actually hard to instill that structurally, um, into the system. So [00:12:00] we’ve been focused on where we can practically make a difference there. So a good example was, um, after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia and the consequent, um, economic second order issues that developed or second, second stage issue that developed around access to food. Uh, and, uh, that actually happened because of the inability of Ukraine to provide to the world the wheat and sunflower and the scale that it was able to before. And [00:12:30] also Russia in terms of the fertilizers. And so you actually had a situation where you had food pricing go out of control. Uh, you also had the inability to substitute by rail and road transport the mechanisms necessary to move the volume required.

John Denton: [00:12:46] So we came up with the idea of the Black Sea agreement, which is effectively a trade agreement. And then the modalities for that which we took to the Secretary General through the Global Crisis Response Group, he established. And for the first time ever, they brought the private [00:13:00] sector in institutionally, and that was the ICC. And whilst the political will lasted, the Black Sea agreement was effective. Um by the time it actually stopped, uh, with that political will stopped, uh, we were actually able to come up with workarounds and other things to work through, but it actually worked and we proved it. Um, and we’re doing the similar thing, by the way, trying to create a mechanism here in the Strait of Hormuz during the current, uh, Iran crisis or, or the Iran crisis [00:13:30] that’s going on now. But what we’re doing here is bringing the private sector directly into the creation of mechanisms and approaches, which can make a difference and actually resolve some of the issues and avert hunger. Uh, that’s showing the benefit of involving the private sector, and that’s building trust and confidence that the private sector is more than an observer, more than a piggy bank. It’s actually a mechanism that can be used in a stakeholder that’s of value. And we want to try and systematize [00:14:00] that. And that’s what I was discussing with the secretary general last Friday in New York.

Vrinda Tiwari: [00:14:05] Well, thank you very much, I think.

John Denton: [00:14:06] Was that too much?

Vrinda Tiwari: [00:14:08] I think not at all. Not at all. We’ve I think we’ve touched on a number of different number of different topics around multilateralism, the WTO, the UN and the United Nations. And I think one of the natural questions that’s coming to my mind is something that’s pretty core to multilateralism or pretty core to working through any of these wide [00:14:30] variety of geopolitical or economic issues that that we’re talking about today. Um, and one of those things is we’re seeing an increase really in societies all over the world, a deepening and kind of widening mistrust gap that might be between the public and institutions, between governments, between traditional allies or trading blocs. And my question to you is, how do you get seemingly opposing parties [00:15:00] to sit down at a table and have a conversation in good faith, particularly when it is, um, issues or topics that are so deeply entrenched? Uh, for example, I mean, you’ve obviously touched on Hormuz, but also the war in Ukraine. How do you get the two parties to sit down and have that conversation? And what are the conditions that you need to create a productive discussion?

John Denton: [00:15:23] Well, there has to be mutual interest to do so. Obviously, you then have to have a [00:15:30] platform, an avenue, a room in which they feel that they have confidence. Uh, that’s quite difficult. And that’s in a way, the traditional role of the United Nations and of the office of the Secretary general. But clearly that has been eroded over time, not necessarily by the incumbents, but just by the perceptions that have been that have been created. But fundamentally, there has to be a mutual interest in actually [00:16:00] sitting down. So what are the incentives that allow that to happen? And also the reality, I think, from anyone who’s involved in trying to create these, um, mechanisms, you have to be trustworthy yourself if you’re enabling the environment and the discussion. And you also have to build confidence incrementally. It’s not a given. And so in a way, um, what we do is actually identify the incentives to bring the parties [00:16:30] together. Um, we actually are a room in which people feel confidence and trust. We are actually not only the most inclusive, but the most trusted business organisation in the world. And actually, interestingly, on any kind of empirical study of trust, you’ll see that business is trusted more highly, much more highly than governments and politicians, which is, you know, it’s it’s not it’s not hard to explain because ultimately people see directly [00:17:00] what their employer and their businesses do for them.

John Denton: [00:17:02] But it’s just an interesting thing to, to contemplate at the same time, which is why business can be useful in these in this regard. And then you have to do what you say you’re going to do, which is all part of integrity. I mean, ultimately doing what you say you’re going to do is about integrity. So having identifying the incentives for mutual for a reason, for people to sit down together, providing the space, building the confidence incrementally, and ultimately delivering [00:17:30] what you say you’re going to do gives the people the confidence enough that they may be able to reach an agreement. Of course, there’ll always be competing challenges outside that, but in that room, it needs to be a room in which those discussions can take place. Moderated and enabled by a, frankly, a group like the ICC.

Vrinda Tiwari: [00:17:49] I think, John, one of the things that has struck me in your, um, responses is that, in fact, I would say right now the world [00:18:00] is seeing a little bit of a structural shift. Um, something that’s probably making the convening, um, of organizations such as the ICC an even harder task and arguably an even more important one. And this shift is really towards a power based style of negotiations by global actors. And here I’m talking about things like the use of bilateral pressure or using market access as, um, leverage or doing deals outside of [00:18:30] the usual multilateral, um, or other institutions in which they’re normally done. So my question to you is, in a situation like this, where one of the main byproducts that’s being created is uncertainty, including uncertainty for business, how does the ICC and other multilateral platforms navigate that tension, and how do you keep businesses engaged when you’re working in such an uncertain multilateral environment? [00:19:00]

John Denton: [00:19:00] I mean, it’s a great question. I mean, um, if you think about, um, the ICC, we were established in the kind of ashes of the First World War and we have grown, changed, adapted, you know, we were almost the private sector analogue to the League of Nations. We continue because of our capacity to kind of reinvent ourselves in a way to be agile enough to do that. The reason [00:19:30] that’s important is that we’ve, uh, we’ve actually, we’ve sort of emerged as an institution capable of governing the spaces that we operate in. And to be an institution is more than being like an association. We can actually, um, because of the confidence and trust people have in the ICC, we have our own court, for example. So we actually we have all the kind of qualities needed. We can actually create rules and norms and soft power to [00:20:00] help govern the spaces in which we operate. And one of our jobs is we’re about enabling business, identifying the great risks they see now, which is uncertainty, is we need to create more certainty. We need to create more order where there is disorder, and we have those tools and we have the trust and we actually have the agency to do that. So we do that. But you make a very good point about, um, there’s a shift from, I suppose, structural approach to rules and, and formalization [00:20:30] of global approaches to get things done to more power based.

John Denton: [00:20:36] And that is actually ultimately then all about leverage. The point I would make in, even in the existing trading, um, brouhaha we have and the problems we’re seeing with that and the level of uncertainty is the greatest leverage you have is helping us enable the maintenance of a functioning trading system, which actually reflects the need for most [00:21:00] economies and businesses to trade across borders with confidence and certainty that not only do they know the rules, but also they can have their contracts enforced, etc. and we can do that. Governments can get in the way of that, but we can actually do that. I mean, we actually I said we have our own court. We actually create the fundamental terms that are the basis of most contracts. Incoterms. We’re the ones who enable through our all our rules, etc., the functioning of the trade finance market, which is a $10 trillion market. We’re [00:21:30] the ones who deliver certificates of all the stuff that’s necessary. We’re the ones that are digitizing trade, so we have agency to do that. So we all the way through, we are trying to create more certainty for businesses so that they can go on doing what they need to do with the confidence they need to have and the optimism, frankly, that sunny Ole John Denton has.

Vrinda Tiwari: [00:21:52] I’ll call you on some of that optimism, because I think the other thing that I wanted to talk to you about, um, is really, uh, well, [00:22:00] the year 2030, we’re coming up to, um, a focus year for many global campaigns. You mentioned already, of course, the sustainable development goals, but obviously there are climate targets. There are other commitments around poverty, education and health. It’s really an anchor year for many of those. What do you think needs to happen in the next four years for us to be able to, in 2030 say, look, we actually got some of this, right?

John Denton: [00:22:28] Well, we’re on track. If I [00:22:30] look at the, um, tracking on the Sustainable Development Goals to fail completely. Uh, that being said, when you look at the, the data, there’s some progress made on 3 or 4. Um, and, um, the challenge of course is if you actually look at the data, there’s actually a shift in public opinion as well, away from alignment with the SDGs to actual opposition to the SDGs, which is kind of weird. So it’s a pretty tough space to be in. That [00:23:00] being said, talking about the SDGs is a problem in itself because the acronym means nothing to most people but talk to people about access to water. That means a lot. Talk to the new US administration, US administration about access to water. Yeah, they’re happy to have a conversation about that, but they’re not going to talk about SDGs because that’s seen as some soft form of global governance. And frankly, they’re right. Um, it has to be more than the acronyms themselves. It has to be built around the reality of how you improve people’s lives. [00:23:30] And that’s focusing on things that matter and access to water, access to energy, access to power, access to opportunity. These things all matter to people. And then you actually have to deliver.

John Denton: [00:23:41] And I think one of the challenges is the economic model for delivery, which was based a lot on the development assistance model has also failed people. Um, I chaired the finance for development conference, the private sector side of that last year. And the point I was making to leaders is that you’re not going to get pledges of country from countries because [00:24:00] they don’t have any money. I mean, it’s not just the US, by the way. I mean, there’s been a reorientation of Oda by Australia for I know you know, and the UK, Germany, others. So we’re going to have to think of a new model. And that has to be around private sector led economic development. It has to be focusing on creating more economic activity and also looking at some of the structural inhibitors to actually getting the investment and moving and getting economic activity operating. But there needs to be a shift in thinking to enable [00:24:30] that to happen. I don’t think it will happen by 2030, but I can tell you more of it is happening. That was happening before and far in part because, um, there’s a cliff, there’s no money. And so people are actually having to do things differently. And the voice of the ICC is actually incredibly welcome in developing and emerging economies, because we’re coming up with practical ways to get businesses to trade across borders.

John Denton: [00:24:56] I mean, we’re doing this fascinating project on [00:25:00] a global on a regional basis in Africa called trade routes, where we are taking individual SMEs and helping them get the tools, the contacts, the financing to move and trade across borders. Economic development is sustainable when that actually happens. More businesses that trade across borders last for more than five years than those that don’t. So building all that is is critical. But also we’re doing this not in general. We’re identifying trade corridors and working to develop those. And I’m on my way next [00:25:30] week to Bolivia, where we’re launching trade Routes Americas. And we’ll be doing the same thing in America. So I’m of course, I’m optimistic because I can see where you do things. You can you can achieve things. The challenge we have is globally scaling those projects. And that’s where I’m sort of working more closely with the world Bank and others who actually want this outcome. They want an outcome where there’s more economic activity. It’s not so much the SDGs. It’s the improvement in people’s lives through getting jobs and active economic activity, [00:26:00] which is so important.

Vrinda Tiwari: [00:26:03] Thanks very much, John. I think, um, one thing I mean, we’ve touched a lot on kind of your advice and insights for multilateral institutions and the moves that they need to make. You and I actually first crossed paths about a decade and a half ago, when you were the CEO and partner of one of Australia’s leading law firms.

John Denton: [00:26:21] Know, the leading Australian law firm. Yeah.

Vrinda Tiwari: [00:26:26] And what I’d like to do.

John Denton: [00:26:28] Cause Chambers Westgarth.

Vrinda Tiwari: [00:26:29] You have [00:26:30] you have spent a lifetime giving, uh, advice and advocating for business. So we’ve concentrated a lot on the multilateral side of things. And what I’d like to hear from you is maybe a few words of advice for businesses and business leaders of today. Day.

John Denton: [00:26:45] Oh, look, the reality is the extraordinary feature of the private sector is its resilience, but also its ingenuity. And, you know, never underestimate that. I mean, you know, people always talk about [00:27:00] the dour numbers and the challenges we see. But then I look at the workarounds. That’s what I mean. The trading system is not dead. It’s actually just being reconfigured. And being open to that reconfiguration is really important. And look, you know, that is partly resilience, but also one of the greatest drivers of drivers of ingenuity is the pursuit of profit. And, you know, continue to focus on how to make your business profitable so that you can return not just to investors, but also to employees, to the communities [00:27:30] in which you live. And that actually requires you to think differently about how you do your business. Don’t wait for the government to help you because even though it would like to, it often doesn’t understand the incentives you need to actually get your business done properly. I mean, that’s, that’s my experience. And I’m a happy investor and a happy operator of businesses for many, many years. And I can tell you the ingenuity, which is driven by trying to make certain you stay in business, is extraordinary and frankly, quite exciting.

Vrinda Tiwari: [00:27:59] Well, thank [00:28:00] you very much, John. And I think that we’re coming to the end of our time here today. And I wanted to really take a moment to say thank you for the insights on not only what we need to be doing to bolster and rewire our multilateral system to keep it relevant in this day and age, but also really how it needs to be reshaped to engage business much more firmly, and really the opportunities that can be delivered from doing that and having that business and private sector engagement. Thank you very much also [00:28:30] to the listeners for tuning in.

John Denton: [00:28:32] And thank you, Vrinda.

Outro: [00:28:35] That was Trading Thoughts, a podcast by the International Chamber of Commerce. Don’t forget to follow us and give us a like. Thanks for listening.